ChatGPT本质上在做什么
仔细想想，ChatGPT本质上是提升了人与信息的连接效率。
之前我想找一个问题的答案，可能需要Google上搜索出好几个页面，然后一个一个页面点进去查找有没有想要的信息。但是现在可以直接，而且是很准确的通过ChatGPT得到想要的答案。粗略地估计，前一个过程大约需要几到十几分钟，而直接问ChatGPT可以把时间缩短到十几秒。当人们可以通过AI算法直接和他们需要的信息连接在一起，还需要搜索引擎吗？
几乎所有行业都依赖于人与信息的连接，那么理论上这种AI会从所有方面提升社会运转的效率，而这种全社会的效率提升就可以被称之为“科技革命”了。
从珍妮纺纱机到蒸汽机，到汽车飞机，再到计算机互联网，每一个科技浪潮都让所有人受益。可以预见到，吃穿住行、医疗教育成本进一步降低，社会总物质财富会不断增加，尽管贫富差距也会拉大。
ChatGPT会带来哪些机会
很多人担心AI会让科技打工人失业，是有道理的，但是换个角度想想，打工人成为资本家的门槛也降低了。
常常听到某个点子就差个程序员之说，现在一个人可能就可以弄出以前需要各种product, engineer团队来打造的产品。中小企业会像雨后春笋一样出现，带来新的一波产业繁荣。我们正处在AI萌芽期，以后AI会像计算机一样逐渐渗透到各行各业提升效率，这个转型期可能会持续几十年，而且会带来各种各样的机会。
ChatGPT之行业思考
可以预见，至少几十年内，掌握算力和数据的企业会有极大的垄断优势，受限于摩尔定律的极限，在打造出量子计算机之前，很难再进一步降低计算的成本，就相当于建立了一个极深的护城河。
因此，芯片行业会极其重要，芯片很快将成为信息时代的“石油”。Nvidia, AMD，Intel作为三大巨头自不必说，行业上游下游的晶圆厂代工厂也可以关注起来，包括芯片相关的ETF比如#SOXL。
ChatGPT对个人的影响
在AI时代，要想脱颖而出，对人的主观能动性和学习能力的要求又上了一个台阶，但是好吃懒做，急功近利的人性是不变的。很大一部分人可能会沦为无用阶级，靠着短视频等信息流娱乐至死，依靠政府发补助。小部分自律者与普通人的差距会越拉越大。
AI对打工人的影响以及我们能做什么
码农是计算机科技革命出现了之后才产生的新职业，而其广大需求和高薪并不是理所当然的，主要受益于互联网的大规模普及，产品边际成本低以及规模经济的网络效应，持续了也不过二三十年。
我不觉得这个职业会消失，在会自己思考和会进化的AGI出现之前，程序员肯定都是要存在的，但受到AI科技革命的影响导致职位需求减少，或者要求变高也很正常。比如以后可能程序员不仅仅是负责写代码了，而是同时负责一个产品的方方面面，比如用Midjourney设计出UX design，用ChatGPT做出用户文案等等。
作为科技打工人，能做的是第一个也是最重要的一个，就是全面拥抱AI，建立自己的持续学习体系，随时做好职业转型的准备。
第二个是低成本下，多多尝试做自己的business。之前也提到过，AI让打工人变成资本家的门栏降低了，一个人做出好产品不再那么遥不可及。
第三个是投资布局，ChatGPT再怎么蹦跶，资本主义的法则还是不变的，会投资也能搭上时代的东风。
专注于不变的事物
虽然预测未来是不可能的，但是我们可以想想在充满变化的世界里什么在几十年里是不变的，随便列举几个：
- 计算机理论基础，包括底层架构，分布式计算，网络硬件等等。
- 资本主义市场，从珍妮纺纱机到蒸汽机，到汽车飞机，再到计算机互联网，每一个科技浪潮都是由资本驱动的。
- 公司快速发布产品，迭代和维护的需求，码农做的事情的本质就是在为公司创造产品。
- 人的基本需求，吃穿住行教育医疗。
- AI对算力，数据和能源的需求。
所以如果想提升自身竞争力甚至找到创业点子，可以从这些不变的事物入手，例如不要局限于软件，多学点设计和底层硬件；例如思考AI如何应用到教育医疗农业等等领域；例如买入早期AI公司的股票等等。
English Version
At its core, ChatGPT fundamentally enhances the efficiency of connecting people with information.
Before, to find an answer to a question, it might involve searching on Google, browsing through several pages, and then clicking into each page to locate the desired information. Now, one can directly, and more accurately, obtain the answer through ChatGPT with context. Roughly estimated, the former process might take several to tens of minutes, while asking ChatGPT can reduce this to just a few seconds. When people can directly connect with the information they need through AI algorithms, will search engines still be necessary?
Nearly all industries depend on the connection between people and information. Theoretically, this kind of AI will enhance the efficiency of societal operations in all aspects, which can be termed a “technological revolution.”
From the spinning jenny to steam engine, to cars and airplanes, then to computers and the internet, each technological wave has benefited everyone. It’s foreseeable that the costs of essentials like food, clothing, housing, transportation, healthcare, and education will further decrease, and the overall material wealth of society will continue to increase, even though the wealth gap may widen.
What opportunities will ChatGPT bring?
Many people are concerned that AI might lead to job losses in tech, which is a valid point. However, looking at it from another angle, the barrier for workers to become entrepreneurs has also been lowered.
It’s often said that a great idea just lacks a programmer. Now, an individual might be able to create a product that previously required a whole engineering teams. Small and medium-sized enterprises will emerge rapidly, heralding a new wave of industrial prosperity. We are currently at the early stages of AI, and in the future, AI will gradually permeate all industries to enhance efficiency. This transformation could last for decades and will bring a plethora of opportunities.
Chip is the new oil
It’s foreseeable that, for at least several decades, companies controlling computing power and data will have a significant monopoly advantage. Limited by the boundaries of Moore’s Law, it will be difficult to further reduce computing costs before the advent of quantum computing, essentially creating a deep moat.
Thus, the chip industry will become extremely important, with chips soon becoming the “oil” of the information age.
“Useless class”
In the AI era, to stand out, the demands on an individual’s initiative and learning ability have increased. However, human nature remains constant. A significant portion of people might become a “useless class,” entertained to death by short videos and other information streams, relying on government subsidies. The gap between a small number of self-driven elites and the rest will likely widen.
The Impact of AI on Tech workers
Programmers are a profession that emerged after the computer technology revolution, and their widespread demand and high salaries mainly benefited from the widespread adoption of the internet, low marginal costs of products, and scale economy network effects, lasting only about two to three decades.
I don’t think this profession will disappear. Until AGI that can think and evolve on its own appears, programmers will certainly exist. However, it’s normal for job demand to decrease or requirements to increase. For example, in the future, programmers may not only be responsible for coding but also for handling all aspects of a product.
As tech workers, the most important thing is to fully embrace AI, establish a continuous learning system, and always be ready for career transformation.
The second thing is to try more low-cost business ventures. As mentioned earlier, AI lowers the barrier for entrepreneurship, making it more attainable for one person to create a great product.
The third is building investment habit. No matter how much AI progresses, the rules of capitalism remain unchanged.
Focus on the Unchangeable
Although predicting the future is impossible, we can consider what remains unchanged in a rapidly changing world over decades. A few examples include:
- The theoretical foundations of computers, including underlying architecture, distributed computing, network hardware, etc.
- The capitalist market.
- The need for companies to rapidly release, iterate, and maintain products. The essence of what programmers do is to create products for companies.
- Basic human needs: food, clothing, housing, transportation, education, and healthcare.
- AI’s demand for computing power, data, and energy.
So, if you want to enhance your own competitiveness or even find entrepreneurial ideas, you can start with these unchanging things. For example, don’t limit yourself to software, learn more about design and underlying hardware; consider how AI can be applied to fields such as education, healthcare, agriculture, etc; or invest in stocks of early-stage AI companies, and so on.